How To Stop Making Stupid NFL Bets
WHOO HOO!!!!
This weekend marks the BEST weekend of the year for many football fans: Championship Weekend! The best teams in the AFC and NFC battle each other for a trip to The Super Bowl. However, for many, it’s just another weekend of frustration and depression, possibly because they’re Jets fans, or maybe because they made stupid NFL bets.
I’m here to help
To avoid Googling “where can I sell a kidney” on Monday morning, stop betting idiotic numbers on the spread. I know this because once I learned these numbers I went from losing money every week to now having made thousands of dollars betting this NFL season.
It’s simple
Here’s the basic strategy for betting the spread: avoid certain numbers like the plague (or like a debt collector). Those numbers are: 3, 4, 6, 7, 10. Why? Because about 40% of games end with margins of 3, 4, 6, 7, or 10 points. If you bet one of those numbers then your bet will result in a push, or straight up loss.
So let’s apply this to reality. This weekend, according to Draft Kings, The Ravens are favorites to beat The Chiefs by at least 4 points. A $10 bet on this could almost double your money, winning you $9.09. A casual bettor might take that bet, but should they?
Unless you’re convinced The Ravens will blow out The Chiefs, it’s not a safe bet. Imagine The Ravens are leading The Chiefs by 10 points, with Patrick Mahomes having the ball with 1:53 left on the clock. The Ravens could and probably will let him score a touchdown to get the ball back and kneel out the clock, winning the game. This scenario, known as a “backdoor cover,” happens often in football.
In that case, your 6 point win turns into a 1 point loss because you bet The Ravens would win by at least 4 points, and they only won by 3.
What’s the safer bet?
If you bet on The Ravens (the favorite), it’s safer to bet they will win by AT LEAST 2.5 points. This way, even if a backdoor cover happens (they let The Chiefs score some meaingless points at the end of the game), you’re still safe. The payoff is lower ($6.50 vs $9.05) but you’re much less likely to lose overall.
What about betting the underdog?
If you decide to bet the underdog (a safer option due to the back door cover), here’s how it looks: Betting The Chiefs to cover means you expect them to NOT lose by more than 4 points. In this case, 4 is a pretty safe bet as The Chiefs rarely get blown out. But is it the best bang for your buck?
NO! You could make more money by changing the bet to +3.5. Or you could win less but play it safer by betting they won’t lose by more than 4.5.
Too Long Didn’t Read?
HERE IT IS IN SIMPLE TERMS
When betting the favorite against the spread the safest numbers are: -2.5, -3.5, -6.5, and -9.5.
When betting the underdog against the spread the safest numbers are: +3.5, +4.5, +7.5, and +10.5.
AND NO MATTER WHO YOU ARE BETTING ON NEVER BET 3, 4, 7 or 10 ON THE SPREAD
So there you go. Now the safest way to not lose money is to not bet at all. But at least with this guide you can stop making stupid nfl bets.
